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The Euro and Pound have taken turns the past few days falling out of favor Greece’s troubles and Dovish BoE rhetoric the catalysts for bearish sentiment. The EUR/GBP has started to settle onto a narrow range as the currencies remain in a stalemate, despite losing ground against other majors.
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More evidence of reversals in the Yen crosses has surfaced and opportunities remain. Focus is now on EURJPY 12140, CADJPY 8690 an AUDJPY 8125. It looks as though the EURUSD has completed wave D of a triangle that has been underway since December 2008 (last day of that month).
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We initially sold EURUSD at 1.4881 . The pair finished last week with a break through resistance at the upper boundary of a falling channel set from the swing high in early December but bullish momentum failed at the 1.38 figure.
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USDJPY positioning is little changed from what we identified last week , with prices stalling below major resistance at the upper boundary of a falling channel established from the high in April 2009. We will remain on the sidelines for now, watching how positioning evolves from here.
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Canadian consumer prices in February slipped to 1.6% from 1.9%, surpassing estimates of 1.4% as energy costs dropped by -1.2%. The core reading which strips out energy costs unexpectedly rose to 2.1% from 2.0%, which is above the BoC’s threshold.
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The British Pound extended the previous day’s decline and slipped to a low of 1.5129 during the European trade as the Bank of England continued to see a risk for a double-dip recession.
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Forex option markets volatility expectations now stand at their lowest levels in nearly two years, pointing to slow currency price moves in the week ahead.
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EURUSD expectations are for a small 2nd wave to bring price back to 13640-13700 either today (Friday) or Monday. A rally presents an opportunity to short against the larger 4th wave high in anticipation of a break to a 2010 low.
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Overview Consumer prices in Canada unexpectedly advanced in February amid higher costs for automobile insurance. Annualized prices leapt 1.6% after climbing 1.9% in January, with economists expecting a rise of 1.4%, Statistics Canada showed today.
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